1. What will the Dow Industrials return in 2016, including dividends?
B. Zero to 10%
C. 10.1% to 20%
D. 20.1% or higher
2. Which equity market will fare best in 2016 (in local currencies)?
A. U.S. (S&P 500)
B. Emerging Markets (MSCI index)
C. Europe (Stoxx 50)
D. Japan (Topix)
3. Name the top S&P 500 sector.
A. Health Care
E. Consumer Staples
4. What will be the year’s biggest financial surprise?
A. Oil (WTI) finishes the year below $40 a barrel
B. S&P 500 gains 15% or more (including dividends)
C. Treasury yields fall, 10-year ends year below 2%
D. Gold loses more luster, finishes year below $1,000
E. Commodity prices surge. Reuters/CRB index gains 20% or more
F. None of the above
5. Which “FANG” stock will fare worst in 2016?
A. Facebook (FB)
D. Alphabet (GOOGL)
6. Where will Apple shares (AAPL) end 2016? They traded last week at $108.
A. Under $100
B. $100 to $115
C. $116 to $130
D. Above $130
7. Where will oil prices (WTI) finish 2016? Oil traded last week around $38 a barrel.
A. Under $30 a barrel
B. $30 to $45 a barrel
C. $45 to $55 a barrel
D. Above $55 a barrel
8. Which CEO will be gone by the end of 2016?
A. Valeant’s (VRX) Michael Pearson
B. IBM’s (IBM) Virginia Rometty
C. Mondelez’s (MDLZ) Irene Rosenfeld
D. Yahoo’s (YHOO) Marissa Mayer
E. Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett
F. All will still be on the job.
9. Which losing stock from 2015 will fare best in 2016?
A. American Express (AXP)
B. Macy’s (M)
C. Valeant Pharmaceuticals
D. Kinder Morgan (KMI)
10. Which out-of-favor industry group will do best in 2016?
A. Railroads (represented by CSX, NSC, UNP)
B. Independent energy producers (APA, APC, EOG)
C. Retailers (WMT, M, TIF)
D. Media (CBS, VIAB, TWX)
11. Name 2016’s best-performing member of the Dow Industrials (including dividends). Worth 2 points.
12. Name the Dow Industrials’ worst-performing stock for 2016 (including dividends). Worth 2 points.
13. Who will be the Republican presidential nominee?
A. Donald Trump
B. Ted Cruz
C. Marco Rubio
D. Someone else
14. What will happen in the 2016 election?
A. Democrats win presidency. Split control of Congress
B. Democrats win presidency. GOP controls Congress
C. Republicans win presidency. GOP controls Congress
D. Republicans win presidency. Split control of Congress
15. Which country will win the most medals at the 2016 summer Olympics?
D. Another country
16. Where will the 30-year T-bond end 2016? It now yields about 3%.
A. Under 2.5%
B. 2.5% to 3%
C. 3.01% to 4%
D. Above 4%
17. Tiebreaker: At what level will the Dow Industrials end 2016? The index traded at 17,500 last week.