A bottom is in but not “the bottom”

What a difference a week can make! The S&P index tested and held 1820 before rebounding to 1940. BoJ’s surprise announcement of implementing a drastic policy of negative rate spurred animal spirits of market participants. Finally, we closed the book on January, a worst January performance ever. Another wild week of stock trading brought major averages out of correction territory.

Looking ahead,  the market should undergo a multi-week sideways and choppy consolidation. However, i  don’t expect 1820 to be the bottom, too much technical damage has been done to the S&P, and slow down of Chinese economy has just begun to unfold with many negative implications felt around the world.

Happy Trading!


What to look for in the week of Feb 01 to


Jeff Miller posted this lists of scheduled economic reports to come during the week

The “A List” includes the following:

  • Employment report (Feb 05 Friday). Will recent strength continue?
  • ISM index (Feb 01 Monday). Based on last week’s Chicago PMI, some see a move back above 50.
  • Personal income and spending . Key take on households.
  • ADP employment change (Feb 03 Wednesday). Good alternative to the “official.”
  • Auto sales (Feb 02 Tuesday). Will the strength continue?
  • Core PCE prices . The Fed’s favorite inflation measure has been very tame.
  • Initial Claims (Feb 04 Thursday). The best concurrent news on employment trends, with emphasis on job losses.

The “B List” includes the following:

  • ISM services . Not as established as the manufacturing index, but also important.
  • Factory orders (Feb 04 Thursday). December data. Often volatile and recently weak.
  • Construction spending . December data. Also volatile but recent strength.
  • Productivity (Feb 04 Thursday). Q4 data, but important for GDP growth.
  • Crude oil inventories . Attracting a lot more attention these days.

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